Hamburg, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

352
FXUS61 KBUF 141750
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
150 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue through Saturday with midsummer heat
returning. A cold front will then move south across the area Sunday
with a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms. This front will
usher in a period of cooler temperatures that will have some staying
power starting early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Extensive diurnal cumulus inland from the lakes will gradually mix
out through the rest of the afternoon with increasing amounts of
sunshine, first on the lake plains, and last across higher terrain.
Highs will reach the low to mid 80s for lower elevations inland from
the lakes, and upper 70s on the hilltops and along the Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario shore.

Tonight through Friday, surface high pressure will build southeast
across Quebec and into New England, with a ridge extending back into
the eastern Great Lakes. Skies will be mainly clear tonight, with
some typical river valley fog across the Southern Tier. Lows will be
cooler than recent nights, with lower 60s on the lake plains and 50s
for the Southern Tier valleys and east of Lake Ontario.

Friday, valley fog across the Southern Tier will burn off by mid
morning. Diurnal cumulus will develop again midday into the
afternoon inland from the lakes. The airmass will quickly begin to
modify, with highs back to the mid to upper 80s for lower elevations
inland from the lakes, and low 80s for the hilltops and lakes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure draped from the Saint Lawrence Valley to New York
State Friday evening will gradually slide east and off the New
England coastline through Saturday. While this will result in a
continuation of largely dry weather...cannot rule out a couple
isolated pop-up showers/storms across our southeastern periphery
during Saturday as diurnal heating and a weak mid-level shortwave
interact with increasing moisture circulating northward around the
backside of the departing ridge. Otherwise...the warm advection
pattern across our region will help to boost high temps mostly into
the 85-90 range Saturday...with surface dewpoints climbing back into
the lower to mid 60s.

Saturday night and Sunday a broad upper-level trough near James Bay
will amplify some and dig southeastward across Quebec and New
England as an embedded shortwave trough rotates through its southern
periphery...with its attendant elongated/wavy cold frontal boundary
slipping southeastward across our region between later Saturday
night and Sunday. Increasing low-level convergence and moisture
return (PWATs climbing to between 1.5 and 2 inches) along the
boundary should allow for a lower-end likelihood (60% chance) of
showers and some scattered thunderstorms attendant to its passage...
with Canadian high pressure then building across our region in its
wake late Sunday/Sunday night and bringing a return to drier and
cooler weather from north to south. This will result in surface
dewpoints falling into the comfortable mid 40s to mid 50s in many
places by later Sunday night...with Sunday night`s lows settling
into the upper 40s/lower 50s across the North Country...and to the
mid to upper 50s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
In the long term portion of the forecast upper level troughing will
remain in place across the Great Lakes/Northeast...and may even
briefly amplify around midweek as a another shortwave trough dives
southeastward along its southwestern periphery. Generally dry
weather should continue through Monday and most (if not all) of
Monday night as the core of the Canadian surface high referenced in
the Short Term section makes its way to Quebec and New England...
with the potential for some scattered showers and (eventually) some
isolated thunderstorms then returning Tuesday through Wednesday
owing to the passing shortwave trough. Dry weather should then
return for Thursday in the wake of this feature and with the return
of surface-based ridging. Otherwise this period will be notably
cooler and less humid than the preceding week...with daytime highs
expected to be in the mid-upper 70s Monday and in the mid 70s to
lower 80s thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Extensive diurnal cumulus fields inland from the lakes will
gradually scatter out through the rest of the afternoon. MVFR/lower
end VFR bases will gradually lift to VFR.

Tonight, expect mainly clear skies. River valley fog and local IFR
will develop across the Southern Tier overnight through Friday
morning. Some of this may impact KJHW.

Friday, the valley fog will burn off by mid morning. VFR will then
prevail with diurnal cumulus midday into the afternoon inland from
the lakes, with a little lower extent and higher cloud bases than
today.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR. River valley fog and local IFR possible
across the Southern Tier late night and early morning.

Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few scattered showers and
thunderstorms with associated brief/local CIG/VSBY restrictions.

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few scattered showers and
thunderstorms with associated brief/local CIG/VSBY restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range will continue to produce
a light to moderate chop on Lake Ontario this afternoon. Another
surge of stronger ENE winds in the 14-17 knot range will develop on
Lake Ontario overnight through Friday morning, producing very choppy
conditions on the lake. Winds and waves are expected to remain just
below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Winds on Lake Erie will be much
lower.

Lighter winds will return to both lakes Saturday with local lake
breezes and onshore flow in the afternoon. Stronger winds will
return Sunday as a cold front moves south across the eastern Great
Lakes. This will bring very choppy conditions at a minimum, with the
potential for Small Craft Advisory winds and waves, especially on
Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock